1. florox, the comparison of tobi=sai to tobi=obito is basically correct however the examples still differ in one crucial point. both present a theory that is neither impossible (0%) nor fact (100%). theyre somewhere inbetween. however from my point of view the chances of sai actually being tobi are low. somewhere around 5% or less. in other words i think its much more likely that sai isnt tobi than that he is.
now if i look at the obito theory its quite the opposite. based on the hints from the manga and anime i believe the chances for obito being tobi are somewhere around 75-80%. thats my personal interpretation of the given facts.
in your whole post the only thing you were expressing was that you believe the chances for the obito theory are low. thats your oppinion. however i will keep trying to convince people that my oppinion is more accurate until the manga shows evidence that changes my oppinion.
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Originally Posted by jaywise86
I KNOW EXACTLY HOW WE CAN FIND OUT WHO TOBI IS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

we can all wait for the manga's to come out.

Good theory right!
i dont like this idea. its a thoughtblocker. it may be a logical thing to do but the approach you take ultimately leads to the conclusion that we should shut down the forum because the manga will eventually reveal everything anyway.
i personally do not argue, theorize and fantasize because i have fun with the results but because i have fun in the process.
its like the rubiks cube. you dont mess him up and put him back together just to have all pieces in the right place. if that would be the case you wouldnt mess him up in the first place. you mess him up because you like putting him back to normal.

2. Originally Posted by Ndes
florox, the comparison of tobi=sai to tobi=obito is basically correct however the examples still differ in one crucial point. both present a theory that is neither impossible (0%) nor fact (100%). theyre somewhere inbetween. however from my point of view the chances of sai actually being tobi are low. somewhere around 5% or less. in other words i think its much more likely that sai isnt tobi than that he is.
now if i look at the obito theory its quite the opposite. based on the hints from the manga and anime i believe the chances for obito being tobi are somewhere around 75-80%. thats my personal interpretation of the given facts.
in your whole post the only thing you were expressing was that you believe the chances for the obito theory are low. thats your oppinion. however i will keep trying to convince people that my oppinion is more accurate until the manga shows evidence that changes my oppinion.

Your opinion is more accurate? Please, before I go forward and disprove all points made to support Obitobi like always, please tell me why Obitobi has a --baffling-- 75-80% being true.

I wasn't comparing Tobi with Sai, but It's great you used it that way. I'll be using that later on.

P.S. Keep in mind we're going for likelyness, not just possibility, and 75-80% is likely. So be wary of what you post.

3. Originally Posted by Florox
please tell me why Obitobi has a --baffling-- 75-80% being true.
I'll use an excerpt from another long post i made elsewhere

First notice that the Tobito theory is not completely unfounded. The similarities are staggering. Tobi and Obi share: Goofy behavior, Hairstyle, approximate age if Obito was alive, Sharingan, right eye only plus Tobi is wearing metal gear on his body which could mean he had his body smashed just like Obito had.

There are still unexplained contradictions in most of the Tobito theories I've heard, but I do not believe that an author who has the ability to avoid such strange coincidences would purposely try to confuse his reader with such circumstancial evidence. So I think it's safe to assume Tobi really has some sort of connection to Obito. The one thing that prevents many from this simple conclusion is Madara. How can Tobi be Obito when every
character knowing more about Tobi calls him Madara? How is it possible that Obito and Madara are the same person - Tobi? This is where theory jumps in.
In order to put the pieces together to a picture I have come to the following theory:
We all saw Tobi stating that his power was "Uchiha Madaras power". He spoke of Madara in 3rd Person. (translators still argue, but the fact that it CAN be translated this way is enough) That was a really odd sentence at the time but it makes sense if you look at it this way. I assume Madara actually did die some time in the past. This allows following chain of events: When Obito was on the verge of death somebody came to his aid and saved his life, this somebody then implanted Obito Madaras eyes granting him Madaras power, maybe even part of Madaras conciousness. However Madara had two eyes why does Obito remain with one? There are multiple explanations.
A) The lame one: Madaras left eye got destroyed B) Slightly less lame one: Obitos left eyehole had already healed and made transplant impossible
C) The contradictory one: we all know the foureyed creature appearing in Itachis Genjutsu. In Madaras case all four eyes were present, but in Itachis case only two were,
indicating that Sasuke has to provide the other two. This would explain why the two can't simply swap eyes, they need to have all four for some reason.
I yet have to figure out where the two original eyes go but i doubt they're pushed back into the skull. The whole idea that Madara removed his own eyes and implanted some others probably without any medical training and certainly without looking at what he was doing and that Itachi is about to attempt the same thing is pretty shaky anyway.
D) From my point of view the most probable: Obitobi has a benefit from keeping his remaining original eye - maybe to hide his identity or whatever. So he keeps Madaras eye behind the mask and uses his normal eye to look around.
http://manga.mangavolume.com/Manga/N...o_383_pg02.jpg
(I suggest Tobi is about to reveal his second eye and demonstrate Madaras power. Maybe Kakashi will the realize it's Obito which would settle the case.)
Nevertheless these are explanations why Obito only has one eye, not two. I agree there could be other methods to grant Obito Madaras powers but the eyetransplant seems the obvious assumption.
Now this theory can provide us with some real information. It explaines why Madara chose that particular time to attack Konoha with the Kyuubi. He was dead until Obito
gained his power then set out to catch the Ninetails and then attacked Konoha with it. Everything fits. And by the way this Obitotheory also explaines why Itachi calls Madara a shell of his former self. The shell is Obito.
http://manga.mangavolume.com/Manga/N...o_386_pg11.jpg
i posted the whole thing so it also provides answers to many other questions you might have. note that when i said "Everything fits" i meant there are no inexplicable contradictions left open. i do not claim that everything is proven.
also id like to add following to the list of similarities: the names obito and tobi resemble each other aswell.
to put the primary argument of the tobito theory, the similarities, into context with my post before i could say the following: from my point of view the probability that all those similarities are coincidences is only at about 20-25%

4. I agree with jaywise86 this is the only way we will know for sure

5. *cracks fingers* God, I knew all you were going to say before you even did. Let's begin...

Originally Posted by Ndes
First notice that the Tobito theory is not completely unfounded. The similarities are staggering. Tobi and Obi share: Goofy behavior, Hairstyle, approximate age if Obito was alive, Sharingan, right eye only plus Tobi is wearing metal gear on his body which could mean he had his body smashed just like Obito had.
Wow. Staggering isn't a word I'd use. Obito's behaviour is not as goofy as Tobi, as it is more like Naruto's. Tobi is not like Naruto. Tobi acts like he does to piss people off, and bascially everytime Obito does something stupid, or goofy, it's done by fluke not because he's doing it on purpose to be funny, unlike Tobi. So no, they don't have the same behaviour. Well, from what we know now, Tobi's older than Obito because Akatsuki was founded before Obito timeline.

Also, Tobi is taller, as he is an adult, and Obito barely a teen. Obito has the same measurements as young Naruto does. Hairstyle.... this is stupid. You CANNOT use hairstyle, why? If it was by hairstyle, Yondaime is Pein, Pein is Naruto, Naruto is Obito, and so on and forth. As for the metal gear: complete assumption. Or it could be that he got wounded in Shodai's fight, or that he's really, old becausehe's Madara by fact, and Madara's over 100 years old.

A million more rocks fell on Obito after his death, and besides, he got his eyes destructed. The only eye left he had, he gave it to Kakashi. Why didn't he give the other one? Because it was destroyed and it didn't work; plain obvious.

Originally Posted by Ndes
There are still unexplained contradictions in most of the Tobito theories I've heard, but I do not believe that an author who has the ability to avoid such strange coincidences would purposely try to confuse his reader with such circumstancial evidence. So I think it's safe to assume Tobi really has some sort of connection to Obito. The one thing that prevents many from this simple conclusion is Madara.
You're the only one getting confused, because everyone else got the point: Tobi is Madara. You mentioned no strange coincidences; one was artstyle, because a lot of characters share some type of resemblance, and the other was just made-up nonsense, and assumptions. It is safe to assume??? based on what facts?? It's super safe to assume that he's Madara, because we have been heavily hinted he is. You don't need Kishimoto to go like :" Well see kids, this is Madara".

Originally Posted by Ndes
How can Tobi be Obito when everycharacter knowing more about Tobi calls him Madara? How is it possible that Obito and Madara are the same person - Tobi? This is where theory jumps in.

In order to put the pieces together to a picture I have come to the following theory:
We all saw Tobi stating that his power was "Uchiha Madaras power". He spoke of Madara in 3rd Person. (translators still argue, but the fact that it CAN be translated this way is enough) That was a really odd sentence at the time but it makes sense if you look at it this way.
Nobody apart from Itachi, Konan and Pein and recently Zetsu refer to him as Madara. Everyone else refers to him as Tobi, and it's obvious because the aforementioned characters all have a more personal connection with him. The Uchiha Madara line was trying to say that he's Madara in an arrogant way. The sentence cannot be directly translated into english, the frase was :" Kono uchiha Madara" which is just an arrogant way of introduction. It doesn't mean that he could be someone else. No translator is arguing.

Also, just because it can be translated that way, doesn't mean it's correct. It's basically how you look at it, is it obvious that if someone introduces himself in a 3rd person, that makes him someone else? No. He could be, but no. Zabuza also introduced himself this way, does this not make him Zabuza? Does this make him someone else? No. The word Kono is juts used this way, so don't try to find any other way.

There was nothing more to that, otherwise, neither would Itachi, pein, Konan and Zetsu refer to him as Madara.

Originally Posted by Ndes
I assume Madara actually did die some time in the past. This allows following chain of events: When Obito was on the verge of death somebody came to his aid and saved his life, this somebody then implanted Obito Madaras eyes granting him Madaras power, maybe even part of Madaras conciousness. However Madara had two eyes why does Obito remain with one? There are multiple explanations.
"I assume Madara..." You shouldn't use this when asked by facts. Yeah, someone from very far away, was digging up in a bunch of rocks to see if he could find an Uchiha, found it, and then just went strolling and implanted Madara's eye. Not only that, but the eye magically granted him part of Madara's concience. That makes sense. If that was true, then Kakashi'd have Obito's personality.

Tell me, why on earth someone would choose Obito, a weak Uchiha with a weak Sharingan, over all the other Uchiha's lost in battle. Not only that, but he avoided every elite Uchiha in the Massacre. FYI: Obito wasn't on the verge of death, he already died after he gave Kakashi his eye, whena bunch of other bigger rocks fell on him.

Originally Posted by Ndes
A) The lame one: Madaras left eye got destroyed B) Slightly less lame one: Obitos left eyehole had already healed and made transplant impossible
For letter A; that's pretty reasonable. For letter B; How about he just lost it? This bothers me, what kind of transplant? Just saying "some transplant" already means you don't have a good answer. There's a lot of restoring techniques you can choose from.

Originally Posted by Ndes
C) The contradictory one: we all know the foureyed creature appearing in Itachis Genjutsu. In Madaras case all four eyes were present, but in Itachis case only two were,

indicating that Sasuke has to provide the other two. This would explain why the two can't simply swap eyes, they need to have all four for some reason.
I yet have to figure out where the two original eyes go but i doubt they're pushed back into the skull. The whole idea that Madara removed his own eyes and implanted some others probably without any medical training and certainly without looking at what he was doing and that Itachi is about to attempt the same thing is pretty shaky anyway.
'
Yes, it's nonsense. Oh and, how in heck do you replace an eye to make it work without any medical training? If I did that, i'm sure it would't work. Common sense...

Originally Posted by Ndes
D) From my point of view the most probable: Obitobi has a benefit from keeping his remaining original eye - maybe to hide his identity or whatever. So he keeps Madaras eye behind the mask and uses his normal eye to look around.
Yeah, that must be a blast! The eye he uses is not normal; it has a three tomoe sharingan. And besides, he said he needed the Kyubbi to unleash the power of his Sharingan, so basically, he doesn't have another eye there.

Originally Posted by Ndes
(I suggest Tobi is about to reveal his second eye and demonstrate Madaras power. Maybe Kakashi will the realize it's Obito which would settle the case.)
Nevertheless these are explanations why Obito only has one eye, not two. I agree there could be other methods to grant Obito Madaras powers but the eyetransplant seems the obvious assumption.
Wow, who's more important, Obito, kakashi's friend, or Madara the guy who had the first and most powerful Sharingan, allied with Shodai to make the biggest army, found Konoha and then rebel and try to destroy it. What importance does Obito have? None, just kakashi's friend. Right, Kishimoto is going to forget the biggest villain on the whole Narutoverse, just to put some drama in Kakashi's life.

There could be other methods? You didn't even mention one! You're missing the point here, even if it was Obito's body with Madara's eye, He'd still be Madara. If Orochimaru would take up Kimmimaro's body(or any other) and use it as it's own, does this make him kimmimaro? No, he's Orochimaru. Similarly, Madara is still Madara, so basically that makes your personality assimilation(50% of your work) wrong, thereby making your "theory" inane.

Originally Posted by Ndes
Now this theory can provide us with some real information. It explaines why Madara chose that particular time to attack Konoha with the Kyuubi. He was dead until Obito
gained his power then set out to catch the Ninetails and then attacked Konoha with it. Everything fits. And by the way this Obitotheory also explaines why Itachi calls Madara a shell of his former self. The shell is Obito.
http://manga.mangavolume.com/Manga/N...o_386_pg11.jpg
Some real information? Or some real assumptions? news flash, Madara has had a connection with Kyubbi way before Akatsuki. He calls Madara a former shell of himself because he isn't the old, uber-powerful, big army, super Mangekyou Madara. Why? because he needs Kyubbi to regain his Sharingan's power. Even so, you shouldn't take Itachi's word for granted, as he underestimated everyone then gets his ass kicked.

75-80%? You must be really bad at numbers.

6. oh dear this might take a while to divide all the emotional speaking from what you really want to say. ill make short sentences to provide some overview.

Obito's behaviour is not as goofy as Tobi, as it is more like Naruto's. Tobi is not like Naruto. Tobi acts like he does to piss people off, and bascially everytime Obito does something stupid, or goofy, it's done by fluke not because he's doing it on purpose to be funny, unlike Tobi.
after all hes grown up. youd expect a slightly different behaviour. the point is that its still resembling obito. what you are saying could be compared to "obito and tobi dont have the same hairstyle because they have a different number of spikes".

Well, from what we know now, Tobi's older than Obito because Akatsuki was founded before Obito timeline.
thats what itachi said and what he was probably told by tobi. it could be right, it could be wrong. third-hand eyewitness reports arent credible enough for me. also itachi didnt say how old akatsuki is. what itachi said didnt contradict the possibility that akatsuki was founded after obitos supposed death.

Also, Tobi is taller, as he is an adult, and Obito barely a teen.
im sorry but this actually made me wonder wether or not you are taking this topic seriously. if obito survived he mustve grown up, thats why he must be bigger.

Hairstyle.... this is stupid. You CANNOT use hairstyle, why? If it was by hairstyle, Yondaime is Pein, Pein is Naruto, Naruto is Obito, and so on and forth.
you are confusing probabilities and certainties. ill give an example. i think everybody here must have guessed that yondaime was narutos father. minato and naruto shared almost the same hairstyle. this of course didnt prove they were father and son but it made the idea more probable. according to your logic it wouldnt matter if minato had long green hair and dark skin, the probabilities wouldnt change to you. that is wrong. the probabilities do change. what doesnt change are the certainties.
i might add something to the hairstyle argument. the fact that both have black hair doesnt change the probabilities because madara being an uchiha is almost bound to have black hair. however madara is by no means bound to have obitos hairstyle.

As for the metal gear: complete assumption. Or it could be that he got wounded in Shodai's fight, or that he's really, old becausehe's Madara by fact, and Madara's over 100 years old.
almost the same thing. yes it is possible that the metal gear results from something like that but it isnt certain. you have to look at this from obitos perspective. if obito actually did survive you would expect that he would be wearing something to support his body. now lets look at tobi...he does indeed wear something to support his body. this is what is commonly described as a coincidence.

The only eye left he had, he gave it to Kakashi. Why didn't he give the other one? Because it was destroyed and it didn't work; plain obvious.
so you claim that if obitos right eye was intact they would have moved the rock to give kakashi obitos right eye and the fact that they didnt move the rock proves his eye wasnt intact? please find the mistake yourself

7. i just honestly dont remember obito acting like a goof ball, i just kind of remember him sucking and then his serious face later... so how does tobi act like obito?
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naruto on the other hand does act like a goof ball, so because of the way characters act, as many people in theories do, i conclude that naruto's kagebunshin is more likely a candidate for tobi than obito is (seriously dont belive either) because he let himself miss that rasengan, he has been informing jiraiya and hengeed the sharinngan look.
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so i went back and read kakashi's gaidan, and i really dont see any of obito's actions that even remotely resemble tobi/madara's actions. but he acts nothing like obito. not even remotely.
also i'm loling right now because i read further up. i read long post backwards and post based on when i have something to say.

8. back then obito was pushing himself very hard because of kakashi, now he is master of the world or at least he thinks he is.

9. Ndes WTF I'm very far away I didn't get your theory sry

10. The biggest question ever: Does Tobi (or whatever you call him) know who he is? I mean, if he was Madara, he wouldn't have joking around with the konoha nin he is still fighting now. (sheesh, that;s taking long)

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