You also have to remember that Gaara has had time to train all of his skills without the hindering effects Shikaku had caused up until its extraction. Yes, his sand based attacks will likely have suffered a bit and are just short of the absolute defense they were with Gaara as a host. But they are still a formidable part of his arsenal. His brother and sister have also likely helped in training with him in other skills (taijutsu, weapons other than sand, elemental jutsu, etc. And before anyone says "Gaara was able to do elemental jutsu during his fight with Naruto, he was more than partially transformed, and was heavily drawing on Shikaku for those attacks. By now, he should have some new wind and/or earth based jutsu of his own outside of the sand based ones already at his disposal) to compensate for his ultimate defense being not so ultimate anymore.
overall, I'd almost have to say this ends up being a stalemate. or either of them just squeak out a win, but spend a great deal of time in the hospital afterwards